None. No, really. No one.
Crises just happen. It may result hackneyed to talk about the butterfly flapping its wings and so on, but it's really true. Come to think of it, even if all the North-americans would have had a defaulting mortgage, they would have been just a drop in a sea full of, well, almost 7 billion people, who more that make up for it. Even if fuel costs continue to go up, and even if there are hurricanes flogging the White House every other week. The economy is a complex network, and complex networks self-adapt to reach a new state of equilibrium.
That is, depending on how bit is the perturbation. Big perturbations can wipe out nodes and links and whatever comes their way; the question is where is that big perturbation. Even the Iraq/Afghan war does not seem a big enough perturbation.
It seems more or less clear that the current credit squeeze has been preceded by a credit glut. And probably there's at least one of the reason, but I still think that there's a lot more there.
Or maybe nothing at all.
Etiquetas: economy, the world, my 2 cents
